The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market has seen dramatic swings from the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic to the frenzy of 2022 and into the more balanced market of 2024. This report analyzes freehold property trends – focusing on detached houses, semi-detached houses, and freehold townhomes – in Etobicoke (Toronto’s west end) and Mississauga. We compare three key periods: the early COVID market (March–August 2020), the market peak (February–March 2022), and current valuations (2024). Key metrics such as sales volumes, average prices, and sale-to-list price ratios are examined for each period. Finally, we compare 2020 vs. 2022 purchase outcomes to determine if buying during uncertain times yields better long-term returns than buying at peak market conditions.

Early COVID Market (Mar – Aug 2020)

Market Conditions: In spring 2020, the onset of COVID-19 caused an abrupt freeze in real estate activity. April 2020 saw GTA sales plummet 67% year-over-year to just 2,975 transactions as strict lockdowns took hold. Despite the drop in activity, prices showed resilience: the GTA’s average selling price in April 2020 was $821,392, essentially flat (+0.1%) compared to April 2019. This stability was largely because the supply of listings fell in tandem with demand, keeping market balance. By late spring and summer 2020, buyer confidence rebounded sharply. Many buyers who paused their searches in March-April re-entered the market, armed with rock-bottom interest rates and a renewed desire for space. Fewer households were traveling that summer, which meant more people stayed active in the market. The result was a surge in sales and price growth through the summer. In August 2020, GTA home sales hit a record 10,775 transactions (up 40.3% year-over-year from 7,682), and the average selling price jumped ~20% year-over-year to $951,404. Low-rise freehold homes (detached, semis, townhomes) led the charge, with intense competition and multiple offers common by midsummer.

Sales and Prices in Etobicoke & Mississauga: Both Etobicoke and Mississauga followed the same V-shaped trajectory. In March 2020, before the full effect of lockdown, detached homes in the City of Toronto (which includes Etobicoke) averaged about $1.47 million, while detached homes in the suburban 905 region (which includes Mississauga) averaged around $1.01 million. When the market rebounded, prices quickly exceeded pre-pandemic levels. For example, by June 2020, the average detached home in Mississauga sold for about $1.23 million.  A few months later, in August 2020, Mississauga’s detached average price hit $1,307,832 – an all-time high at that point and 23% higher than a year earlier. In Toronto’s west end (Etobicoke), detached prices saw a similar lift; the average in Toronto West was around $1.27 million in mid-2020, only slightly below the previous market peak back in 2017. In short, buyers who purchased in the uncertainty of early COVID often secured prices that were low relative to the sharp gains that followed in late 2020 and 2021.

Sale-to-List Price Ratios: The ratio of sale price to listing price (SP/LP) illustrates how competitive the market was. During the worst of the uncertainty (April–May 2020), many sellers accepted deals below their asking prices – on average 2–2.5% under list price in Mississauga. But by the summer, bidding wars had returned. In July–August 2020, the average home sold for about 99–100% of list price (just at or slightly above asking). This was a dramatic swing from the spring nadir: in March 2020 (pre-lockdown) homes were selling 3.5% over asking on average, then dipped below asking during the lockdown, and climbed back to full price by August. The takeaway is that the early COVID period created a brief window of softer prices and negotiating power (especially in April/May 2020) before the market heated up again. Buyers who stepped in during that uncertain time benefited from lower competition and, as it turned out, a launching point for significant price appreciation over the next two years.

Market Peak (Feb – Mar 2022)

Market Conditions: By early 2022, the GTA housing market was reaching a fever pitch. Fueled by a year of rock-bottom interest rates, pandemic-driven housing needs, and FOMO among buyers, demand far outstripped supply. Virtually every property type saw frenzied bidding wars. Inventory (especially for freehold houses) was at historic lows, and buyers routinely paid far over asking prices to secure a home. February and March of 2022 marked the absolute peak of market values in most GTA regions. While sales volumes had pulled back slightly from the record highs of 2021, competition remained extreme. In February 2022, there were 9,097 GTA home sales, a slight drop (-16.8%) from the all-time record set in Feb 2021, but still the second-highest February ever. Limited listings meant any reasonably priced home attracted multiple offers. TRREB reported that “competition remained the norm” despite a minor sales dip year-over-year.

Prices at Peak: The lack of supply and intense demand pushed prices to unprecedented levels in early 2022. In February 2022, the average selling price across all GTA home types hit $1,334,544, up a staggering 27.7% year-over-year. Freehold properties saw some of the largest gains. For instance, semi-detached houses in the outer 905 suburbs saw average prices surge 37.5% year-over-year to $1.28 million. In the City of Toronto, detached houses were the most expensive segment, averaging about $2.07 million in Feb 2022. Etobicoke’s detached homes (part of Toronto’s west end) were in the high-$1 millions at peak, while Mississauga’s detached prices nearly reached $2 million. In fact, data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board shows the average detached house in Mississauga peaked around $1.96 million in early 2022. This was an enormous jump from pre-pandemic values – for comparison, it’s roughly 50% higher than Mississauga’s detached average in mid-2020. Freehold townhomes and semis also hit record-high prices. Many entry-level freehold homes that had been in the $700K–800K range in 2019-2020 were selling for $1M+ by early 2022.

Sale-to-List Price Ratios: If the early COVID market was characterized by uncertainty, early 2022 was defined by excess. Homes were routinely selling for well over the asking price. In Mississauga, for example, the average sale-to-list ratio exceeded 115% at the peak. In January 2022, the average home sold for about 116% of list; in February it was 121% of list price. This means the average property sold over 20% above the asking price in that month – a clear indicator of bidding wars and strategic underpricing by sellers. Even in traditionally calmer segments like luxury homes, buyers had to come in with firm offers far above asking to win. Practically every sale was a seller’s market scenario. Conditions in Etobicoke were similar: across the City of Toronto, houses were often selling 10-20% over ask as well. The peak market environment left buyers with very little bargaining power – it was the epitome of “buying at the top,” with many paying record-high prices just to get into the market.

Current Valuations (2024)

Market Conditions: Fast-forward to 2024, and the market has changed tone significantly. The intervention that cooled the 2022 frenzy was the rapid rise in interest rates through mid-to-late 2022. By 2023 and 2024, higher borrowing costs had a notable moderating effect on demand. Many would-be buyers, especially first-timers, sat on the sidelines waiting for rates (and prices) to stabilize. The result was that 2024 was a much more balanced market. TRREB’s year-end data called 2024 a “transitionary year” – sales in 2024 were subdued and price growth flat overall. There were about 67,610 sales in the GTA in 2024, a modest 2.6% increase over the slow 2023, but nowhere near the volumes seen during the 2021 boom. Buyers generally had more choice, as new listings in 2024 jumped ~16% compared to the prior year. With more supply and tempered demand, the bargaining power became more even between buyers and sellers. Indeed, by late 2024 the sales-to-new-listings ratio hovered around the low 50% range for the GTA, indicative of balanced conditions (neither a rapid seller’s market nor a deep buyer’s market).

Prices in 2024: Home values in 2024 remained well below the 2022 peak, but importantly, they stabilized and even inched up slightly from 2023. The GTA average selling price for all home types was approximately $1.12 million in 2024, virtually flat (+<1%) versus 2023. Ground-oriented homes (detached, semis, towns) fared better than condos – TRREB noted that because the freehold segment had tighter supply, its prices “held up better,” whereas condo apartment values saw more notable declinesstoreys.com. By the end of 2024, freehold properties in Etobicoke and Mississauga were generally valued higher than they were in 2019-2020, but lower than at the 2022 apex. For example, in Mississauga the median detached house price in Q4 2024 was about $1.325 million, which is up modestly year-over-year (about +1.9%) but still well under the ~$1.9–2.0 million peak of early 2022. Semi-detached houses in Mississauga had a median around $979,000 in late 2024, also up slightly from a year prior. In Etobicoke’s case, being part of the Toronto market, detached prices city-wide were roughly $1.42 million as of fall 2024 That Toronto detached average is still about $650,000 (−30%) below the February 2022 peak ($2.07M).

It’s worth noting that 2024’s values are substantially higher than the early COVID period – so anyone who bought in 2020 has still seen significant appreciation. GTA-wide, the average price in March 2020 was about $902,000, whereas the 2024 average is ~$1.12M (roughly 24% higher). But compared to the peak, prices have contracted: $1.334M at the peak in Feb 2022 vs $1.118M now (about 16% lower on average). The sale-to-list ratios in 2024 reflect the calmer market. Homes are generally selling at or just slightly below asking on average. Many sellers have had to adjust expectations from the 2022 highs. In practical terms, that means an offer at 98-100% of the list price can often secure a property in 2024, whereas that would have fallen short in 2022. Days on market are also longer now than during the peak, giving buyers more breathing room to include conditions and negotiate. Overall, 2024 valuations illustrate a market that has cooled from its peak froth, but remains elevated versus the pre-pandemic era.

Comparing Long-Term Returns: Uncertain vs. Peak Purchases

A key question for investors and buyers is whether buying during an uncertain market (like the early pandemic dip) yields better long-term returns than buying during a market peak. The data from 2020, 2022, and 2024 strongly suggest that those who bought in the lulls have fared better than those who bought at the frenzied peak. Below, we consider hypothetical case studies using real market figures from Mississauga and Etobicoke to illustrate this trend:

Case Study 1 – Mississauga Detached Home: Consider a buyer who purchased a detached home in Mississauga in mid-2020, versus one who bought a comparable home at the height in early 2022:

• Early COVID Purchase: In summer 2020, detached houses in Mississauga were selling around the low $1-million range. For example, in June 2020 the average detached price was about $1.23M. Let’s say our buyer purchased a house for roughly $1.25 million at that time. Fast forward to 2024: that same home’s value has increased. With Mississauga detached median prices around $1.325M in late 2024, the home is likely worth roughly $1.35 million (give or take depending on the neighborhood). This represents an appreciation of roughly +8–10% over the 4-year period. It’s a modest annualized return, but importantly, the homeowner has gained equityeven after the market’s ups and downs. Moreover, through 2021, the home’s value would have climbed much higher (likely in the $1.5–$1.8M range at the 2022 peak) before settling back to the current level.

  
  

• Peak Purchase: Now consider a buyer who purchased a similar Mississauga detached home in February 2022 at the peak. As noted, average detached prices were near $1.95–$2.0M in early 2022 for Mississauga. Suppose this buyer paid about $1.95 million for the home. By 2024, with the market correction, that property’s value has declined. Using the late-2024 median of ~$1.325M as a guide, even if we assume some recovery in 2023/24, the home might be worth around $1.4–$1.5 million today. That’s a substantial drop of roughly 20–25% from the purchase price. In other words, the peak buyer is underwateron paper – their home value is lower than what they paid, eroding equity. They experienced a sharp decline in 2022 and only a partial recovery afterward.

  
  

Result: The early-COVID buyer not only paid a much lower price, but has also enjoyed a price gain (even after the 2022–23 dip), whereas the early-2022 buyer paid top dollar and has since seen their home’s value fall. The long-term return clearly favors the purchase made during an uncertain, softer market.

Case Study 2 – Etobicoke Freehold Townhome: Freehold townhouses and semis show a similar pattern. Imagine two buyers looking in Etobicoke (Toronto’s west end) for a freehold townhome (a popular option in neighborhoods like Mimico, New Toronto, or Markland Wood):

• Early COVID Purchase: Our first buyer buys in April 2020, when many were too nervous to act. At that time, sale prices for townhomes were lower and buyers had negotiating power. For instance, the average freehold town/row in the 416 area in March 2020 was around $834K, and by April 2020 prices were slightly lower amid the lockdown. This buyer might have scooped up a townhome for around $800,000. As the market recovered, that townhome’s value rose significantly. By the peak of 2022, it could have been worth well over $1 million. In 2024, even after some market adjustment, freehold townhomes in Etobicoke are still likely worth on the order of $900k–$950k (given broader GTA freehold trends). This represents roughly +15–20% appreciationfrom the purchase price.

  
  

• Peak Purchase: The second buyer waits and buys a similar townhome in March 2022 at the apex. Given how scarce freehold towns were, they might have paid around $1,050,000 (assuming bidding wars drove prices over the $1M mark). Post-peak, that townhome’s value fell into the 2023 trough – perhaps down to the low $900s. In 2024, its value might hover around $900k. This is a drop of ~15% from what the buyer paid at peak. Even if the value inches up further in the future, it could take years just to get back to the purchase price.

These scenarios underscore a clear trend: buying during a calmer or “fearful” market phase often yields better long-term financial outcomes than buying during a hot “greedy” market phase. The early-pandemic buyers essentially bought low and rode the wave up. Those who bought at the peak bought high and then experienced a value dip. It’s a real-world example of the old investment adage “buy when there’s blood in the streets” – in real estate terms, purchasing when others are hesitant can position you for greater gains. Of course, location and property type matter, but the overall GTA data from 2020–2024 supports this pattern.

To further illustrate, the table below summarizes the approximate price changes for a typical detached house in Mississauga during these periods:

Table: Hypothetical comparison of buying a Mississauga detached home in an uncertain market (2020) vs. at the peak (2022), and its estimated value by 2024. The 2020 buyer purchased at ~$1.25M and saw the home’s value rise to around $1.35M by 2024, whereas the 2022 peak buyer who paid ~$1.95M saw a drop to roughly $1.45M in value by 2024, illustrating how timing affected long-term returns.

Conclusion & Key Takeaways

The historical data from the GTA freehold market – especially in areas like Etobicoke and Mississauga – suggests that buying during uncertain, slower markets can indeed yield better long-term returns than buying during peak frenzy periods. Early in the pandemic (2020), buyers had an opportunity to purchase at somewhat deflated or steady prices, and those properties appreciated significantly through the subsequent boom. Even after the market correction in 2022, values in 2024 remain above 2020 levels, leaving early buyers with equity gains. In contrast, those who bought at the market peak in 2022 paid a premium that has not fully been retained; many are still waiting to break even as of 2024.

Key takeaways for investors and buyers include:

• Market Timing Matters: While it’s notoriously difficult to “time the market,” these periods show that entering the market when sales are slow and sentiment is cautious (e.g. early COVID or other downturns) can pay off. Prices in such periods tend to be lower or more negotiable, setting the stage for outsized gains when the market recovers. Conversely, buying in a feeding-frenzy can mean paying top dollar that might not be exceeded again for many years.
• Price Trends: Freehold home prices in both Etobicoke and Mississauga are higher today than in 2020, but lower than the 2022 peak. For example, Mississauga’s average freehold prices climbed roughly 20–30% from 2020 to the peak of 2022, then fell about 15–25% from 2022 to 2024. The net result is still positive growth from 2020 to 2024 in most cases. This reinforces that downturns are often temporary, and GTA real estate has historically trended upward over the long run.
• Sales Volume and Competition: The number of sales was highly volatile – collapsing in early 2020, then hitting records by late 2020, and again cooling by 2024. Investors can glean that low sales volume (often due to economic uncertainty) can be a signal of opportunity, whereas extremely high sales volume and rampant bidding (as in early 2022) may be a caution signal of an overheated market. Monitoring sale-to-list ratios is instructive: in balanced markets, homes sell around asking (or with small discounts), but in hot markets, sale prices far above asking signal aggressive competition. The difference between ~98% and 120% sale-to-list ratios between 2020 and 2022 highlights just how extreme the 2022 bidding wars were.
• Case Study Insights: The hypothetical examples demonstrated real outcomes that many buyers experienced: a 2020 buyer in a place like Mississauga or Etobicoke could be sitting on a 10–20% gain by 2024, whereas a 2022 peak buyer might be facing a 15–30% paper loss in 2024. Over time those 2022 purchases may regain value (especially as the market eventually surpasses old highs), but the opportunity cost is significant. The early buyer’s mortgage principal and carrying costs were also lower thanks to a lower purchase price and interest rates, compounding the advantage.

In summary, the experience of the GTA freehold market from 2020 through 2024 suggests that “buying low” during turbulent times often outperforms “buying high” during boom times when it comes to long-term equity growth. Astute real estate investors and home buyers may take this lesson to heart: when the market sentiment is fearful and uncertain, that may in fact be the window of greatest opportunity. On the other hand, chasing the market euphoria at its peak can lead to slower equity build-up or even short-term losses if the market corrects. Of course, real estate decisions also depend on personal needs and the ability to hold the property long-term, but from a pure investment standpoint, history favors those who buy during the lulls. The GTA’s recent history reinforces the value of patience, prudence, and a willingness to go against the crowd.

Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch data and news releases

etobicokeproperty.ca

livabl.comstoreys.com, TRREB via Canadian Press/Global Newsglobalnews.ca, Mississauga market statisticsmississaugahomesdaily.comcreastats.crea.ca, and other market reports as cited throughout. All data points are sourced from TRREB or the Canadian Real Estate Association and reflect the best available information for the periods discussed.